Explore my research page… Welcome!

As a Ph.D. student specializing in political science, my focus is on democratization, with a particular interest in coups. Here, you’ll find a collection of my work, where I employ various methodologies such as experiments, surveys, and observational data analysis. Currently, I’m engaged in a project exploring coups, self-coups, and survival analyses of political leaders of successful coups or self-coups. Explore my research to delve deeper into these fascinating topics.

Leadership Transitions and Survival: Coups, Autocoups, and Power Dynamics

Article

Coups

Autocoups

Leadership Survival

The completion of this thesis marks the end of a significant journey, one filled with hard work, continuous learning, and moments of profound joy. This dissertation would…

Leadership Transitions and Survival: Coups, Autocoups, and Power Dynamics

Ph.D. Defense Presentation

Autocoups Redefined: A Clarification of Concept and Introduction of A Novel Dataset

This article provides a critical reexamination of autocoups, an under-explored phenomenon in which incumbent leaders manipulate institutions to extend their tenure. By distinctly separating autocoups from the broader and more ambiguous concepts of self-coups or executive takeovers, the research introduces a refined and more nuanced definition of autocoups. Building on this clarified conceptual framework, the study unveils a novel dataset of autocoup events from 1945 to 2023, greatly enhancing the empirical foundation for future research. A robust mixed-methods approach is employed, combining three types of qualitative case studies that offer in-depth insights into the dynamics of autocoups, alongside a comprehensive quantitative analysis of the determinants influencing both autocoup attempts and their outcomes. This rigorous empirical inquiry not only underscores the utility and versatility of the new dataset but also makes a significant contribution to the existing body of literature.

Power Acquisition and Leadership Survival: A Comparative Analysis of Coup-Entry and Autocoup Leaders

Article

Coups

This study examines how the method of power acquisition impacts the longevity of two main types of irregular-entry political leaders: coup-entry leaders and autocoup leaders. We hypothesize that the method of accession significantly affects leader tenure. Utilizing the Cox proportional hazards model and a time-dependent Cox model, we provide compelling evidence of differing survival times between these two leader types. The findings indicate that coup-entry leaders face a significantly higher risk of removal compared to autocoup leaders. Specifically, coup-entry leaders are found to have a much shorter average tenure and a higher probability of being ousted. This study underscores the implications of these findings for political stability and democratic processes, suggesting that the relatively low cost and high returns of autocoups could incentivize more incumbents to seize power in this manner, potentially leading to democratic backsliding. Furthermore, this research contributes to the academic literature by effectively utilizing a newly developed dataset on autocoups, offering valuable insights into the dynamics of irregular leadership transitions.

Power Dynamics and Coup Attempts: A Selection Mechanism Analysis

Article

Coups

Despite extensive research identifying around one hundred potential determinants of coup attempts, no consensus has been reached. This study introduces a novel approach that prioritizes determinants based on their impact on coup success. By analyzing coup success rates, the study hypothesizes that the expected outcomes of coups are critical determinants of their occurrence. Utilizing a double probit model with sample selection, the research investigates the relationship between regime types and coup attempts. The findings suggest that regime type, by shaping internal power dynamics, is a crucial determinant of coup likelihood.

Prospective Impact of Expected Coup Outcomes on Coup Attempts: A Selection Mechanism Analysis

Slides

Article

Coups